Crawley Town 0-1 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 23 Dec 2024

📅23/12/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
6.35
Draw
25%
4.62
Away Pick
54%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.21
Over
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
28%
4.16
2-3
38%
1.82
4-5
23%
2.81
6+
11%
8.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.16 — our 28% vs market 17.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
13.3
1/2
11%
22.55
1/X
7%
21.1
X/1
7%
16.85
X/2
17%
3.55
X/X
11%
7.12
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.62
2/X
6%
20.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Birmingham win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
12%
+9.1pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.8pp
54%
Away Win
70%
-15.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 75%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.84/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/0.96
+58% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -43%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
230 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 448 · 81%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.0
11.8 Crosses 28.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Birmingham
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 9
08.08.2017 Birmingham Birmingham 5-1 HT 3-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
0-1
AWAY Birmingham
0.22 xG 0.80
38% Ball Possession 62%
5 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
185 Passes 368
66% Pass Accuracy 80%
9 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham squeezed past Crawley Town 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 38% of the ball to Birmingham's 62%, shots finished 5-11, expected goals 0.22 to 0.80.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Birmingham?

Crawley Town 0-1 Birmingham in the England - 1st Division on 23/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 21%, draw 25%, Birmingham 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ BTTS No
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