Bayern Münih 1-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 24 Jan 2024

Bayern Münih
1-0 HT 0-0
Union Berlin
📅24/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Bayern Münih vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.18
Draw
19%
6.26
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.14
Over 2.5
63%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
8.03
2-3 Goals
38%
2.31
4-5 Goals
30%
2.4
6+ Goals
14%
4.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.24
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
8%
32.0
X/1
16%
3.57
X/2
4%
34.0
X/X
7%
12.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.75
2/2
9%
24.3
2/X
4%
30.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.75 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
80%
-15.3pp
19%
Draw
13%
+6.2pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+9.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
28%
+8.5pp
63%
Over 2.5
72%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern Münih v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 9%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
2.83/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.33
+36% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -12%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
523 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
43.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
22.5 Crosses 14.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Bayern Münih vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Union Berlin
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.15 xG 0.85
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
590 Passes 233
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.02.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 3-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
03.09.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
19.03.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 3-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
30.10.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-5 HT 1-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
10.04.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
12.12.2020 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Bayern Münih 1-0 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
1-0
AWAY Union Berlin
2.08 xG 0.25
72% Ball Possession 28%
22 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 1
684 Passes 214
92% Pass Accuracy 76%
47 Box Touches 4
35 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih nicked a narrow win over Union Berlin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 72% of the ball to Union Berlin's 28%, shots finished 22-4, expected goals 2.08 to 0.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayern Münih's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Bayern Münih and 0.83 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Union Berlin?

Bayern Münih 1-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 65%, draw 19%, Union Berlin 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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