Vitoria ES 3-1 Serra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 24 Jan 2024

📅24/01/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.25
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
Over
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
38%
4-5
22%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.2pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.8pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria ES The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Serra The Market 34%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
2.01/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.33
+50% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria ES
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Serra
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
12.02.2023 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES 2-2 HT 1-2 Serra Serra BRCAP
05.03.2022 Serra Serra 2-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria ES Vitoria ES BRCAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria ES
3-1
AWAY Serra
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Vitoria ES vs Serra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria ES got the better of Serra 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vitoria ES as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vitoria ES had 46% of the ball to Serra's 54%, shots finished 16-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Vitoria ES and 2.00 for Serra.

What was the final score of Vitoria ES vs Serra?

Vitoria ES 3-1 Serra in the Brazil - Capixaba on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria ES vs Serra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria ES win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vitoria ES 43%, draw 23%, Serra 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria ES) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria ES) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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