Novo Hamburgo 2-1 Santa Cruz RS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Gaucho 1, 24 Jan 2024

📅24/01/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
Over
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2-3
34%
4-5
18%
6+
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
56%
Home Win
56%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
20%
Away Win
21%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novo Hamburgo The Market 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Cruz RS The Market 24%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+13% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
358 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novo Hamburgo
2-1
AWAY Santa Cruz RS
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
POST-MATCH Novo Hamburgo vs Santa Cruz RS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novo Hamburgo nicked a narrow win over Santa Cruz RS 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Novo Hamburgo as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novo Hamburgo had 47% of the ball to Santa Cruz RS's 53%, shots finished 16-10.

What was the final score of Novo Hamburgo vs Santa Cruz RS?

Novo Hamburgo 2-1 Santa Cruz RS in the Brazil - Gaucho 1 on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novo Hamburgo vs Santa Cruz RS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novo Hamburgo win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Novo Hamburgo 56%, draw 24%, Santa Cruz RS 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novo Hamburgo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novo Hamburgo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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