HNK Gorica 2-3 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 24 Jan 2024

HNK Gorica
2-3 HT 2-1
Rijeka
📅24/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2025/2026

HNK Gorica vs Rijeka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
44%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.77
6+ Goals
7%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+5.9pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.2pp
44%
Away Win
54%
-10.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HNK Gorica v Rijeka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 58%
+10% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
0.98/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.84
+1% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +13%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
265 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 79%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
18.2 Crosses 18.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

HNK Gorica vs Rijeka Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rijeka
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 1.22
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
282 Passes 339
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
12.02.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.10.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-2 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
31.07.2022 Rijeka Rijeka 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
19.03.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR

HNK Gorica 2-3 Rijeka — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
2-3
AWAY Rijeka
0.71 xG 2.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
114 Passes 117
48% Pass Accuracy 48%
18 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka nicked a narrow win over HNK Gorica 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 48% of the ball to Rijeka's 52%, shots finished 8-22, expected goals 0.71 to 2.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rijeka's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.00 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Rijeka?

HNK Gorica 2-3 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 27%, draw 29%, Rijeka 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →