Benfica 1-1 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 24 Jan 2024

Benfica
1-1 HT 0-1
Estoril
📅24/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - League Cup – 2023/2024

Benfica vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.22
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
21%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.96
Over 2.5
48%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
6.99
2-3 Goals
42%
2.18
4-5 Goals
20%
2.45
6+ Goals
13%
4.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.99 — our 25% vs market 10.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.32
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
27.5
X/1
14%
3.53
X/2
6%
27.5
X/X
9%
10.8
2/1
7%
21.15
2/2
8%
19.45
2/X
5%
26.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
77%
-20.3pp
22%
Draw
14%
+7.8pp
21%
Away Win
8%
+12.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
30%
+21.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
70%
-21.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 11%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.93/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.60
-17% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +36%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
529 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
34.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.9 Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Benfica vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Estoril
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.21 xG 0.64
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
486 Passes 276
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
23.04.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
09.11.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POK
06.11.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-5 HT 0-3 Benfica Benfica POR
20.03.2022 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
30.10.2021 Estoril Estoril 1-1 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR

Benfica 1-1 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-1
AWAY Estoril
3.68 xG 0.20
68% Ball Possession 32%
23 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
16 Corners 4
509 Passes 210
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica and Estoril couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Benfica carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Benfica had 68% of the ball to Estoril's 32%, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 3.68 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Benfica and 0.50 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Estoril?

Benfica 1-1 Estoril in the Portugal - League Cup on 24/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Benfica 57%, draw 22%, Estoril 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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