ES Tunis 1-0 Simba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 24 Jan 2026

📅24/01/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.37
Draw
17%
4.34
Away
11%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 30% vs market 28.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.64
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
21.8
X/1
27%
3.57
X/2
3%
17.45
X/X
10%
5.72
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
5%
17.2
2/X
4%
26.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
69%
+2.9pp
17%
Draw
20%
-2.6pp
11%
Away Win
11%
-0.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.1pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Simba EU Bookmakers 14%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+42% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
439 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 70%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.8 Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ES Tunis
1-0
AWAY Simba
0.81 xG 0.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
282 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 6
10 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ES Tunis vs Simba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Tunis edged past Simba 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had ES Tunis as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, ES Tunis had 47% of the ball to Simba's 53%, shots finished 7-6, expected goals 0.81 to 0.38.

What was the final score of ES Tunis vs Simba?

ES Tunis 1-0 Simba in the CAF Champions League on 24/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Tunis vs Simba?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Tunis win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split ES Tunis 72%, draw 17%, Simba 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ES Tunis), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ES Tunis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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