Marsilya 3-1 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 24 Jan 2026

📅24/01/2026 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.33
Over
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
56%
1.48
No
44%
2.45
Total Goals
0-1
25%
4.8
2-3
42%
1.94
4-5
23%
2.75
6+
10%
7.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.8
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
16%
5.29
X/2
10%
7.4
X/X
11%
5.72
2/1
9%
21.75
2/2
14%
4.71
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.75 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens The Market 33%
+9% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.63/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.51
+13% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +31%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
401 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
18.3 Crosses 18.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Lens
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 1.43
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
474 Passes 283
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.10.2025 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
08.03.2025 Marsilya Marsilya 0-1 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
23.11.2024 Lens Lens 1-3 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
28.04.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
12.11.2023 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
06.05.2023 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
3-1
AWAY Lens
1.00 xG 1.01
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
497 Passes 411
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 13
5 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Marsilya vs Lens
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Marsilya put daylight between themselves and Lens 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Marsilya had 54% of the ball to Lens's 46%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.00 to 1.01.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Marsilya and 1.33 for Lens.

Marsilya vs Lens Result & Final Score

Marsilya 3-1 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 24/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Marsilya vs Lens Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 47%, draw 23%, Lens 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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