Ayr United 1-2 Raith Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 24 Feb 2024

Ayr United
1-2 HT 1-2
Raith Rovers
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - Championship – 2023/2024

Ayr United vs Raith Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
43%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.21
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.67
6+ Goals
10%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 32% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.94
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
12%
5.71
X/2
13%
5.33
X/X
11%
4.48
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
22%
3.58
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-4.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
43%
Away Win
37%
+6.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.5pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ayr United v Raith Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ayr United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Raith Rovers EU Bookmakers 40%
-8% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +20%
1.30/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.81
-28% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +43%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
208 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 68%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
14.0 Crosses 10.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Ayr United vs Raith Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ayr United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Raith Rovers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
The Meetings
22.12.2023 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers 4-4 HT 2-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
30.09.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 1-2 HT 0-2 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers İKCL
29.04.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 0-0 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers İKCL
24.02.2023 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers 0-0 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
03.12.2022 Ayr United Ayr United 2-0 HT 1-0 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers İKCL
17.09.2022 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers 3-2 HT 2-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL

Ayr United 1-2 Raith Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ayr United
1-2
AWAY Raith Rovers
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Ayr United vs Raith Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Raith Rovers edged past Ayr United 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Raith Rovers as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ayr United had 50% of the ball to Raith Rovers's 50%, shots finished 16-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ayr United and 1.50 for Raith Rovers.

What was the final score of Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?

Ayr United 1-2 Raith Rovers in the Scotland - Championship on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Raith Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ayr United 32%, draw 25%, Raith Rovers 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Raith Rovers) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Raith Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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