24/02/2024
·
22:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Samambaia vs Ceilandia Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
68%
Over
32%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
No
63%
Total Goals
0-1
43%
2-3
36%
4-5
15%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
23%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 68% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
37%
Home Win
35%
27%
Draw
30%
36%
Away Win
34%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Samambaia v Ceilandia — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Samambaia
The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY
Ceilandia
The Market 38%
+50% /
+50%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+47% /
+47%
3.00/0.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
3.00/0.00
+150%
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+116%
/
–
51%
Ball Possession
49%
11
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
2
4
Corners
4
292 · 77%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
325 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
3.0
Yellow Cards
–
Samambaia vs Ceilandia Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Samambaia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Ceilandia
3.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Samambaia vs Ceilandia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Ceilandia swept aside Samambaia 3-0 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Ceilandia made the difference. On goals, no to both teams scoring (63%) landed while under 2.5 goals (68%) missed.
What was the final score of Samambaia vs Ceilandia?
Samambaia 0-3 Ceilandia in the Brazil - Brasiliense on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Samambaia vs Ceilandia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Samambaia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Samambaia 37%, draw 27%, Ceilandia 36%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Samambaia), Under 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Samambaia)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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