Novorizontino 1-0 Agua Santa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A1, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.6pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Agua Santa EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.04/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.75
+37% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
21.3 Crosses 14.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Agua Santa
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.00 xG 1.11
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
248 Passes 322
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2022 Agua Santa Agua Santa 1-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
02.12.2020 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-3 HT 0-2 Agua Santa Agua Santa BREPK
28.11.2020 Agua Santa Agua Santa 1-1 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPK
25.01.2020 Agua Santa Agua Santa 0-2 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
25.03.2016 Novorizontino Novorizontino 4-0 HT 2-0 Agua Santa Agua Santa BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
1-0
AWAY Agua Santa
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
274 Passes 307
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Agua Santa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino nicked a narrow win over Agua Santa 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Novorizontino as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Novorizontino had 47% of the ball to Agua Santa's 53%, shots finished 13-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Novorizontino and 1.00 for Agua Santa.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Agua Santa?

Novorizontino 1-0 Agua Santa in the Brazil - Paulista A1 on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Agua Santa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 42%, draw 31%, Agua Santa 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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