Kalisz 5-1 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.8
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-1.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalisz EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +25%
1.74/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.32
+12% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalisz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 0-2 HT 0-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
12.04.2023 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 0-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
20.08.2022 Kalisz Kalisz 3-2 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
15.04.2022 Kalisz Kalisz 2-3 HT 1-2 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
03.10.2021 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-0 HT 0-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
23.05.2021 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 0-0 HT 0-0 Kalisz Kalisz POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalisz
5-1
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kalisz vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalisz cruised past Pogon Siedlce 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kalisz as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Kalisz had 37% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 63%, shots finished 10-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Siedlce led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kalisz and 1.33 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Kalisz vs Pogon Siedlce?

Kalisz 5-1 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 2nd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalisz vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kalisz win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kalisz 43%, draw 25%, Pogon Siedlce 32%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kalisz), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kalisz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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