Fortaleza 0-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Copa Do Nordeste, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+3.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
0.99/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.20
-33% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Vitoria
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.05.2022 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRK
21.04.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRK
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria edged past Fortaleza 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fortaleza at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fortaleza and 0.00 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Vitoria?

Fortaleza 0-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Copa Do Nordeste on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 41%, draw 28%, Vitoria 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fortaleza) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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