Esbjerg 2-2 Aarhus Fremad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 24 Mar 2024

Esbjerg
2-2 HT 1-1
Aarhus Fremad
📅24/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Denmark - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.57
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.33
Over 2.5
49%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.63
No
56%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
4.86
2-3 Goals
35%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
8%
7.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.86 — our 32% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
60%
-14.0pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.8pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+9.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
39%
+12.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
61%
-12.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
57%
-12.9pp
56%
BTTS No
43%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Esbjerg v Aarhus Fremad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.42/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.09
+23% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +62% / +50%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.10.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 2-4 HT 1-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
21.05.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 3-1 HT 0-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
14.05.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 1-3 HT 0-3 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
05.03.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-2 HT 0-1 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
26.08.2022 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 0-1 HT 0-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2

Esbjerg 2-2 Aarhus Fremad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
2-2
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg and Aarhus Fremad couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Esbjerg at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Esbjerg had 52% of the ball to Aarhus Fremad's 48%, shots finished 16-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Esbjerg had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Esbjerg and 1.20 for Aarhus Fremad.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad?

Esbjerg 2-2 Aarhus Fremad in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs Aarhus Fremad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esbjerg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 46%, draw 26%, Aarhus Fremad 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Esbjerg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →