FC Juarez 4-3 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 24 Mar 2024

FC Juarez
4-3 HT 1-1
Puebla
📅24/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

FC Juarez vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.33
2-3 Goals
36%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
9%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 31% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.0pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Juarez v Puebla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.22/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.38
-5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
358 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 79%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
21.3 Crosses 17.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

FC Juarez vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Puebla
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.71 xG 1.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 Passes 314
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.08.2023 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
01.04.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-2 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
27.08.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
02.03.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
30.10.2021 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-2 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
13.02.2021 Puebla Puebla 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK

FC Juarez 4-3 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
4-3
AWAY Puebla
1.51 xG 1.39
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
322 Passes 374
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 34
25 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez edged past Puebla 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had FC Juarez as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 46% of the ball to Puebla's 54%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.51 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for FC Juarez and 2.00 for Puebla.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Puebla?

FC Juarez 4-3 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 45%, draw 28%, Puebla 27%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Juarez) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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