AIK 2-0 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 24 Apr 2024

AIK
2-0 HT 2-0
IFK Varnamo
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✓
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

AIK vs IFK Varnamo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
27%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.07
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.81
6+ Goals
9%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.95
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.4
X/1
16%
3.55
X/2
9%
11.7
X/X
12%
5.15
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
12%
10.05
2/X
8%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-12.7pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.0pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+10.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AIK v IFK Varnamo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
1.61/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.47
-20% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
21.6 Crosses 15.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

AIK vs IFK Varnamo Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
2W-1D-1L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.58 xG 1.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
398 Passes 428
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
29 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.11.2023 AIK AIK 3-1 HT 3-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
24.04.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-0 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
14.08.2022 AIK AIK 2-2 HT 1-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
24.07.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 2-3 HT 0-1 AIK AIK İSÇ

AIK 2-0 IFK Varnamo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
2-0
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.46 xG 0.54
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
423 Passes 540
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AIK vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AIK got the better of IFK Varnamo 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had AIK as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, AIK had 45% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 55%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.46 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, AIK had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AIK and 1.50 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of AIK vs IFK Varnamo?

AIK 2-0 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AIK 48%, draw 25%, IFK Varnamo 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AIK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AIK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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