Sunshine Coast Wanderers 3-1 Queensland Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 24 Apr 2024

Sunshine Coast Wanderers
3-1
Queensland Lions
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Australia - National Premier League – 2024

Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Queensland Lions Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.4
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
60%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.17
Over 2.5
64%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.49
No
52%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
13%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
35%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
15%
+3.8pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.4pp
60%
Away Win
67%
-7.2pp
36%
Under 2.5
28%
+7.5pp
64%
Over 2.5
72%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
63%
-15.2pp
52%
BTTS No
37%
+15.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sunshine Coast Wanderers v Queensland Lions — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sunshine Coast Wanderers EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Queensland Lions EU Bookmakers 71%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.10/2.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/1.25
-43% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -16%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
10.0 Crosses 27.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4

Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Queensland Lions Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sunshine Coast Wanderers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Queensland Lions
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.25 xG 1.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
234 Passes 259
68% Pass Accuracy 69%
13 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.06.2023 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions 0-1 HT 0-0 Sunshine Coast Wanderers Sunshine Coast Wanderers AVNPL
04.03.2023 Sunshine Coast Wanderers Sunshine Coast Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions AVNPL
02.08.2022 Sunshine Coast Wanderers Sunshine Coast Wanderers 0-3 HT 0-2 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions AVSQ
02.04.2022 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions 6-1 HT 4-0 Sunshine Coast Wanderers Sunshine Coast Wanderers AVSQ
12.09.2021 Sunshine Coast Wanderers Sunshine Coast Wanderers 0-2 HT 0-0 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions AVSQ
30.05.2021 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions 0-2 HT 0-1 Sunshine Coast Wanderers Sunshine Coast Wanderers AVSQ
POST-MATCH Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Queensland Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunshine Coast Wanderers beat Queensland Lions 3-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Queensland Lions at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Queensland Lions led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sunshine Coast Wanderers and 2.00 for Queensland Lions.

What was the final score of Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Queensland Lions?

Sunshine Coast Wanderers 3-1 Queensland Lions in the Australia - National Premier League on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sunshine Coast Wanderers vs Queensland Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated an Queensland Lions win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Sunshine Coast Wanderers 19%, draw 21%, Queensland Lions 60%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Queensland Lions), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Queensland Lions) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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