Brusque 3-1 Mirassol FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 24 Apr 2024

Brusque
3-1 HT 1-0
Mirassol FC
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Brusque vs Mirassol FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.03
No
62%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.3
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
14%
5.31
6+ Goals
7%
33.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.3 — our 40% vs market 36.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.3pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
45%
-7.2pp
62%
BTTS No
55%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brusque v Mirassol FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brusque EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mirassol FC EU Bookmakers 39%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.33/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.82
-21% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
253 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
26.7 Crosses 18.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Brusque 3-1 Mirassol FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brusque
3-1
AWAY Mirassol FC
0.33 xG 2.62
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 9
209 Passes 480
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 23
8 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brusque vs Mirassol FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brusque got the better of Mirassol FC 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 31% / 33% — and on the day Brusque made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brusque had 34% of the ball to Mirassol FC's 66%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.33 to 2.62 — the balance of chances actually favoured Mirassol FC.

What was the final score of Brusque vs Mirassol FC?

Brusque 3-1 Mirassol FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brusque vs Mirassol FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brusque win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Brusque 36%, draw 31%, Mirassol FC 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brusque) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Brusque) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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