24/04/2025
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Express vs UPDF Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
7%
X/2
11%
X/X
22%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
29%
Draw
26%
34%
Away Win
26%
55%
Under 2.5
52%
45%
Over 2.5
48%
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
49%
BTTS No
49%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Express v UPDF — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Express
EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY
UPDF
EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% /
+2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+11% /
+11%
1.50/1.02
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.07/0.99
+16%
/
-21%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+16%
/
+4%
54%
Ball Possession
46%
14
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
360 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
315 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
0.5
Yellow Cards
0.7
Express vs UPDF Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Express
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
UPDF
2.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
50%
Ball Possession
50%
0
Corners
0
The Meetings
Express 2-2 UPDF — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Express
2-2
AWAY
UPDF
59%
Ball Possession
41%
16
Total Shots
4
6
Shots on Target
2
11
Corners
2
2
Yellow Cards
2
POST-MATCH
Express vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Express and UPDF shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.
Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Express had 59% of the ball to UPDF's 41%, shots finished 16-4.
What was the final score of Express vs UPDF?
Express 2-2 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Express vs UPDF?
Before kick-off our model rated a Express win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Express 37%, draw 29%, UPDF 34%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Express), Under 2.5 went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Express)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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24 Apr 2025