CA Penarol 3-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 24 May 2024

📅24/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.50/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.34
-12% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
425 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 4.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Progreso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.20
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
15.08.2021 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
25.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
07.10.2020 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
27.11.2019 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
3-1
AWAY Progreso
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol saw off Progreso 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 48% of the ball to Progreso's 52%, shots finished 19-7.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CA Penarol and 0.20 for Progreso.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Progreso?

CA Penarol 3-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 24/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 50%, draw 25%, Progreso 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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24 May 2024
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