Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Athletic Club — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.45
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.44
6+ Goals
10%
23.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-4.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.1pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Club EU Bookmakers 19%
-9% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.03/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.19
-8% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -39%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
19.3 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-0
AWAY Athletic Club
0.88 xG 0.43
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
288 Passes 381
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Athletic Club
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense nicked a narrow win over Athletic Club 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 45% of the ball to Athletic Club's 55%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 0.88 to 0.43.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Athletic Club?

Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Athletic Club in the Brazil - Serie B on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Athletic Club?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 56%, draw 22%, Athletic Club 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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