Kalmar 2-2 Malmö FF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 24 Aug 2024

Kalmar
2-2 HT 0-1
Malmö FF
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Kalmar vs Malmö FF Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
51%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.12
6+ Goals
13%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.27
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.85
1/X
6%
16.4
X/1
10%
10.9
X/2
16%
3.83
X/X
13%
5.81
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.97
2/X
7%
15.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.85 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+5.0pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
51%
Away Win
58%
-7.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.0pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kalmar v Malmö FF — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 62%
+6% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.87/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.01/0.88
-22% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 468 · 83%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.1
14.2 Crosses 22.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7

Kalmar vs Malmö FF Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalmar
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Malmö FF
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.53 xG 1.89
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
335 Passes 473
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.05.2024 Malmö FF Malmö FF 5-0 HT 4-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
08.10.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 1-0 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
01.04.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-0 HT 0-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
28.08.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 0-1 HT 0-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
03.04.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 0-1 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
28.11.2021 Kalmar Kalmar 0-1 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ

Kalmar 2-2 Malmö FF — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
2-2
AWAY Malmö FF
1.33 xG 1.74
27% Ball Possession 73%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
224 Passes 706
76% Pass Accuracy 91%
15 Box Touches 44
6 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs Malmö FF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kalmar and Malmö FF shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Malmö FF at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Kalmar had 27% of the ball to Malmö FF's 73%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.33 to 1.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Kalmar and 1.33 for Malmö FF.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs Malmö FF?

Kalmar 2-2 Malmö FF in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs Malmö FF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 24%, draw 26%, Malmö FF 51%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Malmö FF) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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