Aarau 1-0 Etoile Carouge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
40%
-7.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
43%
Away Win
34%
+9.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.9pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 37%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.08/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.88
-9% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +54%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 80%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
13.6 Crosses 11.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-0
AWAY Etoile Carouge
0.84 xG 0.81
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
159 Passes 487
67% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Etoile Carouge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarau nicked a narrow win over Etoile Carouge 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Etoile Carouge at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aarau had 30% of the ball to Etoile Carouge's 70%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.84 to 0.81.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?

Aarau 1-0 Etoile Carouge in the Switzerland Challenge League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Etoile Carouge?

Before kick-off our model rated an Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aarau 33%, draw 24%, Etoile Carouge 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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