Stal Stalowa Wola 1-3 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
30%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.1
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.78
6+ Goals
8%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 28% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+7.3pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.5pp
30%
Away Win
41%
-10.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Stalowa Wola EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +48% / +48%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/2.00
-14% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +124% / -45%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Stalowa Wola
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2023 Stal Stalowa Wola Stal Stalowa Wola 2-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
29.07.2023 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-0 HT 0-0 Stal Stalowa Wola Stal Stalowa Wola POL2
09.11.2019 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-2 HT 0-1 Stal Stalowa Wola Stal Stalowa Wola POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Stalowa Wola
1-3
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stal Stalowa Wola vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce beat Stal Stalowa Wola 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Pogon Siedlce found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Stal Stalowa Wola had 51% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 49%, shots finished 8-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Stal Stalowa Wola had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stal Stalowa Wola and 1.33 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Stal Stalowa Wola vs Pogon Siedlce?

Stal Stalowa Wola 1-3 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Stalowa Wola vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Stalowa Wola win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Stal Stalowa Wola 40%, draw 30%, Pogon Siedlce 30%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stal Stalowa Wola) ✗ Under 2.5
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