Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 2-1 Wisla Pulawy — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.47
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.28
2-3 Goals
44%
1.98
4-5 Goals
21%
2.69
6+ Goals
9%
6.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.28 — our 26% vs market 14.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-5.4pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.5pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.2pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Wisla Pulawy EU Bookmakers 20%
-78% / -78% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.63
-46% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
426 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Wisla Pulawy
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
24.06.2022 Wisla Pulawy Wisla Pulawy 3-2 HT 1-0 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki HAZ
27.02.2022 Wisla Pulawy Wisla Pulawy 4-2 HT 3-1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki POL2
18.08.2021 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 0-2 HT 0-0 Wisla Pulawy Wisla Pulawy POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
2-1
AWAY Wisla Pulawy
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Wisla Pulawy
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki squeezed past Wisla Pulawy 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki had 49% of the ball to Wisla Pulawy's 51%, shots finished 11-12.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Wisla Pulawy led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki and 3.00 for Wisla Pulawy.

What was the final score of Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Wisla Pulawy?

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 2-1 Wisla Pulawy in the Poland - 2nd Division on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Wisla Pulawy?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 58%, draw 23%, Wisla Pulawy 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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