Oleksandria 4-3 Shakhtar Donetsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.34
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
52%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
16%
+8.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
52%
Away Win
62%
-10.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oleksandria EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 66%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
0.86/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/0.79
-17% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +18%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oleksandria
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2024 Oleksandria Oleksandria 0-3 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
14.08.2023 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 HT 2-0 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKR
07.05.2023 Oleksandria Oleksandria 1-1 HT 1-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
29.10.2022 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 HT 1-1 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKR
11.12.2021 Oleksandria Oleksandria 1-2 HT 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
07.08.2021 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2 HT 1-2 Oleksandria Oleksandria UKR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oleksandria
4-3
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
7 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oleksandria nicked a narrow win over Shakhtar Donetsk 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Shakhtar Donetsk at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 7-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Oleksandria and 1.83 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

What was the final score of Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Oleksandria 4-3 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Ukraine - Premier League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oleksandria vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Oleksandria 25%, draw 24%, Shakhtar Donetsk 52%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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