Boca Juniors 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Cup, 24 Oct 2024

Boca Juniors
1-1 HT 1-0
Gimnasia La Plata
📅24/10/2024 · 🕒03:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Cup – 2024

Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.57
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.58
6+ Goals
7%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 39% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.56
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
17%
4.06
X/2
12%
8.21
X/X
13%
4.05
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
7%
6.89
2/X
7%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.1pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Boca Juniors v Gimnasia La Plata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boca Juniors EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 25%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.16/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.14
+94% / -45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 73%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
13.5 Crosses 40.0
0.4 Yellow Cards 4.0

Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boca Juniors
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.12 xG 1.22
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
398 Passes 181
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.07.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-3 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
20.10.2022 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-2 HT 0-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ
31.10.2021 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 0-1 HT 0-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
15.02.2021 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 2-2 HT 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
08.03.2020 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 1-0 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
27.10.2018 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 2-1 HT 1-1 Boca Juniors Boca Juniors ARJ

Boca Juniors 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boca Juniors
1-1
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.57 xG 0.48
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
316 Passes 199
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boca Juniors and Gimnasia La Plata couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Boca Juniors at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Boca Juniors had 57% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 43%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.57 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Boca Juniors had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.17 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Boca Juniors 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Cup on 24/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boca Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boca Juniors win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Boca Juniors 48%, draw 28%, Gimnasia La Plata 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Boca Juniors), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Boca Juniors) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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