Modena 2-1 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 24 Oct 2025

Modena
2-1 HT 1-1
Empoli
📅24/10/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Modena vs Empoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
21.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.42
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
17%
4.2
X/2
7%
8.81
X/X
14%
4.3
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
7%
7.52
2/X
8%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-1.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.1pp
20%
Away Win
21%
-1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Modena v Empoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.33/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.59
+4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
20.4 Crosses 22.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

Modena vs Empoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Empoli
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
The Meetings
15.03.2014 Modena Modena 0-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTB
05.10.2013 Empoli Empoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB
19.03.2013 Modena Modena 2-3 HT 1-2 Empoli Empoli İTB
27.10.2012 Empoli Empoli 4-2 HT 2-0 Modena Modena İTB
21.04.2012 Empoli Empoli 1-3 HT 1-1 Modena Modena İTB
13.11.2011 Modena Modena 0-2 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTB

Modena 2-1 Empoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
2-1
AWAY Empoli
1.45 xG 0.37
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
365 Passes 275
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Modena vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Modena edged past Empoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Modena as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Modena had 56% of the ball to Empoli's 44%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 1.45 to 0.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Modena and 2.00 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Modena vs Empoli?

Modena 2-1 Empoli in the Italy - Serie B on 24/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Modena win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Modena 50%, draw 30%, Empoli 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Modena), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Modena) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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