TransMara Sugar 1-1 Sofapaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 24 Nov 2024

TransMara Sugar
1-1 HT 0-1
Sofapaka
📅24/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2024/2025

TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.75
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.59
Over 2.5
38%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
54%
-12.3pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.4pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

TransMara Sugar v Sofapaka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 23%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/0.66
-21% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +50%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
389 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 71%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TransMara Sugar and Sofapaka couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was TransMara Sugar at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka?

TransMara Sugar 1-1 Sofapaka in the Kenya - Premier League on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs Sofapaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 41%, draw 31%, Sofapaka 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (TransMara Sugar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (TransMara Sugar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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