Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Madrid v Sevilla — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Sevilla
İS1
1-1
HT 0-0
Sevilla
HAZ
6-1
HT 2-1
Sevilla
İS1
0-2
HT 0-1
Atletico Madrid
İS1
1-1
HT 1-0
Sevilla
İS1
2-1
HT 1-1
Atletico Madrid
İS1
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Sevilla — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid nicked a narrow win over Sevilla 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Atletico Madrid had 58% of the ball to Sevilla's 42%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 2.37 to 0.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Madrid's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.83 for Sevilla.
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla?
Atletico Madrid 1-0 Sevilla in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 25/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 49%, draw 24%, Sevilla 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.