Melbourne City 1-0 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 25 Jan 2024

Melbourne City
1-0 HT 1-0
Adelaide United
📅25/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne City vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.96
Over 2.5
60%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.35
No
43%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.48
2-3 Goals
36%
2.23
4-5 Goals
27%
2.38
6+ Goals
16%
4.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.39
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
11%
13.1
X/1
16%
4.94
X/2
10%
8.02
X/X
7%
6.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.6
2/2
13%
4.6
2/X
6%
13.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.6 — our 11% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.9pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
70%
-12.6pp
42%
BTTS No
30%
+12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne City v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.72/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.71
+30% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
18.8 Crosses 21.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Melbourne City vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.93 xG 1.25
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
436 Passes 330
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 6-0 HT 2-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
03.03.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 4-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
29.01.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-3 HT 1-3 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
22.05.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
18.05.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
15.02.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-2 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Melbourne City 1-0 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
1-0
AWAY Adelaide United
1.06 xG 1.47
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
350 Passes 408
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 36
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City nicked a narrow win over Adelaide United 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne City had 47% of the ball to Adelaide United's 53%, shots finished 14-25, expected goals 1.06 to 1.47 — on chances, Adelaide United could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Melbourne City and 2.67 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?

Melbourne City 1-0 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 25/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 46%, draw 24%, Adelaide United 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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