Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Anderlecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 25 Jan 2024

Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1 HT 1-0
Anderlecht
📅25/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Belgium - Cup – 2023/2024

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.27
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
9%
14.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 27% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.64
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.36
X/2
8%
7.36
X/X
10%
4.7
2/1
8%
24.7
2/2
13%
5.51
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Anderlecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 29%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.27/0.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.60
-43% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -94% / +141%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
6.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
19.0 Crosses 26.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Anderlecht
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.12 xG 1.01
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
297 Passes 412
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.07.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
08.01.2023 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1-3 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
28.08.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 2-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
15.05.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
24.04.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-1 HT 2-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
30.01.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Anderlecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1
AWAY Anderlecht
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise edged past Anderlecht 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 40% of the ball to Anderlecht's 60%, shots finished 9-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.50 for Anderlecht.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht?

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Anderlecht in the Belgium - Cup on 25/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Anderlecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 46%, draw 25%, Anderlecht 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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