Libertad 2-1 Sportivo Luqueno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 25 Jan 2024

📅25/01/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-7.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.90/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.97
+0% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 203 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.11.2023 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 0-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
03.09.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 0-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
25.04.2023 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 0-2 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
11.02.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-1 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
21.11.2021 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 2-2 HT 2-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
03.11.2021 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 0-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PARK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-1
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Sportivo Luqueno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad edged past Sportivo Luqueno 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 47% of the ball to Sportivo Luqueno's 53%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Libertad and 0.50 for Sportivo Luqueno.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Libertad 2-1 Sportivo Luqueno in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 25/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Libertad 52%, draw 25%, Sportivo Luqueno 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
PAR More Paraguay - Profesyonel League
25 Jan 2024
00:30 Sol De America vs Club Guarani Analysis →