Al Ahli Manama 3-1 Manama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bahrain - Copa del Rey, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
28%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.95
Over 2.5
39%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
1.66
No
65%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
3.54
2-3 Goals
33%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.38
6+ Goals
5%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 40% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
3%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
36%
+9.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
28%
Away Win
37%
-9.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
48%
+13.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
52%
-13.4pp
35%
BTTS Yes
56%
-21.0pp
65%
BTTS No
44%
+21.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Manama EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Manama EU Bookmakers 40%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.62/0.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+150% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / +9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
248 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli Manama
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Manama
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2023 Manama Manama 2-3 HT 2-1 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama BAH
14.05.2023 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 1-1 HT 0-0 Manama Manama BAH
27.01.2023 Manama Manama 5-1 HT 4-1 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama BAH
23.09.2022 Manama Manama 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama BAHK
25.02.2022 Manama Manama 3-1 HT 2-0 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama BAH
16.09.2021 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 1-1 HT 0-1 Manama Manama BAH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli Manama
3-1
AWAY Manama
42% Ball Possession 58%
5 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Manama vs Manama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Manama saw off Manama 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahli Manama as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahli Manama had 42% of the ball to Manama's 58%, shots finished 5-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manama led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Al Ahli Manama and 2.17 for Manama.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Manama vs Manama?

Al Ahli Manama 3-1 Manama in the Bahrain - Copa del Rey on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Manama vs Manama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli Manama win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Manama 46%, draw 26%, Manama 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Manama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Manama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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