Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super Cup, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tobol
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2 Corners 11
04.11.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 0-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
27.08.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-0 HT 0-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
16.04.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 4-1 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
27.08.2022 Tobol Tobol 4-0 HT 2-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
09.04.2022 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 3-1 HT 2-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
02.10.2021 Tobol Tobol 3-1 HT 1-1 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
POST-MATCH Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ordabasy Shymkent and Tobol shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ordabasy Shymkent and 1.67 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super Cup on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ordabasy Shymkent win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ordabasy Shymkent 40%, draw 27%, Tobol 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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