Napredak Krusevac 3-1 Novi Pazar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.59
Over 2.5
39%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-4.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.3pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napredak Krusevac EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 37%
-14% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
1.45/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.13
-14% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 74%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
22.5 Crosses 14.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napredak Krusevac
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Novi Pazar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.07 xG 0.94
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 195
71% Pass Accuracy 62%
17 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 1-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
18.02.2023 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
19.08.2022 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 1-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
01.04.2022 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 1-0 HT 1-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
21.10.2021 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 1-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
16.12.2020 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-0 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napredak Krusevac
3-1
AWAY Novi Pazar
1.71 xG 1.40
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
149 Passes 278
63% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 16
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Napredak Krusevac vs Novi Pazar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napredak Krusevac saw off Novi Pazar 3-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 30% / 37% — and on the day Napredak Krusevac made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Napredak Krusevac had 38% of the ball to Novi Pazar's 62%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.71 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novi Pazar led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Napredak Krusevac and 1.17 for Novi Pazar.

What was the final score of Napredak Krusevac vs Novi Pazar?

Napredak Krusevac 3-1 Novi Pazar in the Serbia - Super League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napredak Krusevac vs Novi Pazar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novi Pazar win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Napredak Krusevac 33%, draw 30%, Novi Pazar 37%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Novi Pazar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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