Domzale 2-1 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.4
Draw
30%
4.19
Away
52%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.77
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
7%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
10%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
38%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
15%
+3.4pp
29%
Draw
20%
+9.4pp
52%
Away Win
65%
-12.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.3pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Domzale EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 70%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.47/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.47/0.90
-54% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +20%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
262 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 432 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Domzale
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Celje
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 Celje Celje 3-1 HT 1-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
20.08.2023 Domzale Domzale 1-2 HT 0-1 Celje Celje SLVN
18.03.2023 Celje Celje 1-0 HT 0-0 Domzale Domzale SLVN
07.12.2022 Domzale Domzale 2-1 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
18.09.2022 Celje Celje 2-1 HT 0-1 Domzale Domzale SLVN
16.07.2022 Domzale Domzale 0-0 HT 0-0 Celje Celje SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Domzale
2-1
AWAY Celje
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Domzale vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Domzale squeezed past Celje 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Celje at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Domzale had 33% of the ball to Celje's 67%, shots finished 9-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celje led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Domzale and 1.50 for Celje.

What was the final score of Domzale vs Celje?

Domzale 2-1 Celje in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Domzale vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celje win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Domzale 18%, draw 29%, Celje 52%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Celje) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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