Stjarnan 1-4 Keflavik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - League Cup, 25 Feb 2025

📅25/02/2025 · 🕒22:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
30%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.8pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.3pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.7pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stjarnan EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Keflavik EU Bookmakers 19%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.80/2.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.73
-28% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +39%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
392 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stjarnan
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Keflavik
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.42 xG 0.25
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
454 Passes 210
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 8
14 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.09.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 3-0 HT 2-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
11.06.2023 Keflavik Keflavik 1-1 HT 0-0 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
18.05.2023 Stjarnan Stjarnan 4-0 HT 2-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZK
04.09.2022 Stjarnan Stjarnan 0-2 HT 0-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
16.06.2022 Keflavik Keflavik 2-2 HT 1-2 Stjarnan Stjarnan İZL
03.07.2021 Stjarnan Stjarnan 2-3 HT 0-2 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stjarnan
1-4
AWAY Keflavik
67% Ball Possession 33%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Stjarnan vs Keflavik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keflavik cruised past Stjarnan 4-1 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Stjarnan at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Stjarnan had 67% of the ball to Keflavik's 33%, shots finished 9-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stjarnan and 1.33 for Keflavik.

What was the final score of Stjarnan vs Keflavik?

Stjarnan 1-4 Keflavik in the Iceland - League Cup on 25/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stjarnan vs Keflavik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stjarnan win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Stjarnan 54%, draw 21%, Keflavik 25%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stjarnan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stjarnan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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