Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 25 Mar 2024

Independiente Del Valle
1-1 HT 0-0
Aucas
📅25/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-10.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Del Valle v Aucas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +21%
1.69/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.53
-7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -4%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 72%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
18.9 Crosses 12.4
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.5

Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Aucas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.47 xG 0.98
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
393 Passes 173
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
03.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
11.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKVSK
24.07.2022 Aucas Aucas 5-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.03.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
14.08.2021 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1

Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-1
AWAY Aucas
2.18 xG 0.39
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
348 Passes 184
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle and Aucas couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Del Valle at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 63% of the ball to Aucas's 37%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.18 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.17 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?

Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 25/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 48%, draw 27%, Aucas 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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