Uniao De Leiria 0-2 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 25 Apr 2024

Uniao De Leiria
0-2 HT 0-1
Penafiel
📅25/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.09
6+ Goals
10%
19.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 30% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Uniao De Leiria v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 31%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.66/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.30
+22% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.7 Crosses 19.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Penafiel
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.93 xG 0.93
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
402 Passes 202
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
30 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
31.10.2007 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel PORLC
02.04.2006 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
27.11.2005 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
13.02.2005 Penafiel Penafiel 3-0 HT 2-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
26.09.2004 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-2 HT 0-2 Penafiel Penafiel POR

Uniao De Leiria 0-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0-2
AWAY Penafiel
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel saw off Uniao De Leiria 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Uniao De Leiria at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 57% of the ball to Penafiel's 43%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.33 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel?

Uniao De Leiria 0-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 43%, draw 27%, Penafiel 30%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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