Mura 2-2 Rogaska — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - Cup, 25 Apr 2024

Mura
2-2 HT 1-1
Rogaska
📅25/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.46
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.67
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.39
6+ Goals
7%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 33% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
10%
X/X
21%
2/1
13%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
37%
-7.8pp
33%
Draw
29%
+4.0pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mura EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Rogaska EU Bookmakers 37%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +43% / +43%
1.67/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+2% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +68%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mura
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Rogaska
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Rogaska Rogaska 0-0 HT 0-0 Mura Mura SLVN
07.12.2023 Mura Mura 3-1 HT 1-1 Rogaska Rogaska SLVN
23.09.2023 Rogaska Rogaska 0-2 HT 0-1 Mura Mura SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mura
2-2
AWAY Rogaska
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mura vs Rogaska
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mura and Rogaska shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 33% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mura had 48% of the ball to Rogaska's 52%, shots finished 10-22.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mura had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mura and 0.33 for Rogaska.

What was the final score of Mura vs Rogaska?

Mura 2-2 Rogaska in the Slovenia - Cup on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mura vs Rogaska?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rogaska win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mura 29%, draw 33%, Rogaska 38%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Rogaska) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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