Novorizontino 2-1 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒03:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.77
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.36
Over
35%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.4
No
59%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1
39%
1.81
2-3
37%
1.85
4-5
17%
7.11
6+
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.0pp
30%
Draw
32%
-2.1pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
70%
-5.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
30%
+5.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
38%
+3.4pp
59%
BTTS No
62%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 31%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.16/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.73
+12% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -20%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
23.8 Crosses 17.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
2-1
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
2.08 xG 1.22
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
280 Passes 402
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino edged past Atletico Paranaense 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Novorizontino found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Novorizontino had 43% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 57%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.08 to 1.22.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Atletico Paranaense?

Novorizontino 2-1 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 37%, draw 30%, Atletico Paranaense 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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