America Mineiro 2-1 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.56
Over
35%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.95
No
63%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.46
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
15%
4.84
6+
7%
27.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.46 — our 38% vs market 34.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.5pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+1.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-10.1pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 32%
-21% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-17% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
284 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.7 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Santos
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.36 xG 1.28
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
287 Passes 384
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.09.2023 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
30.04.2023 Santos Santos 3-2 HT 2-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
15.08.2022 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
24.04.2022 Santos Santos 3-0 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
23.10.2021 Santos Santos 0-2 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
04.07.2021 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
2-1
AWAY Santos
1.18 xG 0.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 10
336 Passes 319
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro edged past Santos 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 50% of the ball to Santos's 50%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.18 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for America Mineiro and 1.00 for Santos.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Santos?

America Mineiro 2-1 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 41%, draw 28%, Santos 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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