HJK Helsinki 1-1 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
9%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 27% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.17
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
14%
5.03
X/2
16%
6.09
X/X
10%
5.05
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
14%
4.12
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 37%
-20% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.12/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.32
-23% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
17.1 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 1.89
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
372 Passes 180
77% Pass Accuracy 62%
26 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
22.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
21.05.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
23.07.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
08.05.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
16.10.2021 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-3 HT 1-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
18.06.2021 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 1-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
1-1
AWAY Ilves Tampere
0.73 xG 1.92
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
378 Passes 393
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki and Ilves Tampere couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 50% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 50%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.73 to 1.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.00 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

HJK Helsinki 1-1 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 38%, draw 26%, Ilves Tampere 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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