St George Willawong 3-1 Moreton City Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - Queensland NPL, 25 May 2025

St George Willawong
3-1 HT 2-0
Moreton City Excelsior
📅25/05/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - Queensland NPL – 2025

St George Willawong vs Moreton City Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.34
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
56%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
16%
+6.5pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.5pp
56%
Away Win
66%
-9.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.5pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St George Willawong v Moreton City Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St George Willawong EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreton City Excelsior EU Bookmakers 70%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -6%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
236 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH St George Willawong vs Moreton City Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St George Willawong saw off Moreton City Excelsior 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

This one beat our numbers. Moreton City Excelsior carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of St George Willawong vs Moreton City Excelsior?

St George Willawong 3-1 Moreton City Excelsior in the Australia - Queensland NPL on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St George Willawong vs Moreton City Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated an Moreton City Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split St George Willawong 22%, draw 22%, Moreton City Excelsior 56%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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