Kolombiya 2-1 Paraguay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa America, 25 Jun 2024

📅25/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
4.75
6+ Goals
6%
26.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 36% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.14
1/2
4%
75.0
1/X
4%
16.35
X/1
19%
3.65
X/2
7%
10.85
X/X
15%
4.16
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
14%
9.78
2/X
7%
17.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.4pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kolombiya EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Paraguay EU Bookmakers 20%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.06/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.33
+24% / -73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -81% / +11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
345 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 70%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
19.0 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kolombiya
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Paraguay
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.58 xG 0.77
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
370 Passes 235
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.11.2023 Paraguay Paraguay 0-1 HT 0-1 Kolombiya Kolombiya DKE
20.11.2022 Kolombiya Kolombiya 2-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay HAZ
17.11.2021 Kolombiya Kolombiya 0-0 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
06.09.2021 Paraguay Paraguay 1-1 HT 1-0 Kolombiya Kolombiya DKE
23.06.2019 Kolombiya Kolombiya 1-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay AKU
06.10.2017 Kolombiya Kolombiya 1-2 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kolombiya
2-1
AWAY Paraguay
0.71 xG 0.81
68% Ball Possession 32%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
439 Passes 161
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
21 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kolombiya vs Paraguay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kolombiya squeezed past Paraguay 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kolombiya as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kolombiya had 68% of the ball to Paraguay's 32%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.71 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kolombiya had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kolombiya and 0.50 for Paraguay.

What was the final score of Kolombiya vs Paraguay?

Kolombiya 2-1 Paraguay in the Copa America on 25/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kolombiya vs Paraguay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kolombiya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Kolombiya 49%, draw 26%, Paraguay 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kolombiya) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kolombiya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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