Sport Recife 1-2 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 25 Jun 2024

📅25/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.33
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
14%
5.2
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.33 — our 40% vs market 36.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.7pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.0pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-5.2pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.17/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.12
-3% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
22.3 Crosses 17.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Novorizontino
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.66 xG 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
294 Passes 296
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
30.04.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
31.08.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
18.05.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
1-2
AWAY Novorizontino
0.84 xG 1.15
72% Ball Possession 28%
17 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
396 Passes 107
84% Pass Accuracy 59%
34 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino edged past Sport Recife 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sport Recife at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 72% of the ball to Novorizontino's 28%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 0.84 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sport Recife had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sport Recife and 0.00 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Novorizontino?

Sport Recife 1-2 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 25/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 48%, draw 30%, Novorizontino 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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