HB Koge 2-1 Aarhus Fremad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 25 Jul 2025

HB Koge
2-1 HT 1-0
Aarhus Fremad
📅25/07/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Denmark 1st Division – 2025/2026

HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.03
Over 2.5
57%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.65
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
27%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.92
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
11%
6.05
X/2
15%
5.61
X/X
9%
5.15
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
27.5
2/2
20%
3.49
2/X
8%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+2.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
45%
-2.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
55%
+2.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.8pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HB Koge v Aarhus Fremad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HB Koge EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 42%
+12% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+14% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.7 Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards –

HB Koge 2-1 Aarhus Fremad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HB Koge
2-1
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
0.73 xG 3.35
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 27
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 10
218 Passes 509
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 41
9 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HB Koge edged past Aarhus Fremad 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Aarhus Fremad at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, HB Koge had 33% of the ball to Aarhus Fremad's 67%, shots finished 6-27, expected goals 0.73 to 3.35 — on chances, Aarhus Fremad could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad?

HB Koge 2-1 Aarhus Fremad in the Denmark 1st Division on 25/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HB Koge vs Aarhus Fremad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aarhus Fremad win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split HB Koge 35%, draw 24%, Aarhus Fremad 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aarhus Fremad) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aarhus Fremad) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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