Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 Durango — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 25 Jul 2026

📅25/07/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
48%
+2.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.7pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Durango EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.74/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.63
+8% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
267 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Durango
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
19.01.2023 Durango Durango 0-2 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
29.07.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-0 HT 0-0 Durango Durango MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
0-1
AWAY Durango
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Durango
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Durango squeezed past Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 11-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.00 for Durango.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Durango?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-1 Durango in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Durango?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 50%, draw 27%, Durango 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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