Swansea City 1-1 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 25 Aug 2024

Swansea City
1-1 HT 1-0
Cardiff City
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Swansea City vs Cardiff City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.77
6+ Goals
9%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 31% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
17%
4.39
X/2
11%
7.59
X/X
12%
4.46
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
13%
5.79
2/X
8%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+5.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swansea City v Cardiff City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +23%
1.60/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.28
+11% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 70%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
20.2 Crosses 15.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Swansea City vs Cardiff City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Cardiff City
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.82 xG 0.87
63% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
446 Passes 210
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Swansea City Swansea City 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
16.09.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
01.04.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-3 HT 1-2 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
23.10.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 2-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
02.04.2022 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-4 HT 0-1 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
17.10.2021 Swansea City Swansea City 3-0 HT 1-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL

Swansea City 1-1 Cardiff City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
1-1
AWAY Cardiff City
1.40 xG 0.79
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
425 Passes 220
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
13 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City and Cardiff City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Swansea City at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Swansea City had 61% of the ball to Cardiff City's 39%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.40 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swansea City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Swansea City and 0.67 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Cardiff City?

Swansea City 1-1 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swansea City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 43%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Swansea City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swansea City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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